I'm looking into a possible topic for a school project currently. It involves looking at the S&P 500 in comparison to other indices globally (e.g., Nikkei, DAX, etc.). I currently have plotted 19 different indices with decades of price movements.

I would like to find a way to show with confidence that the S&P 500 is the leader in it's own way. I'm definitely not certain, but in my experience it seems that it is the leader of the US markets. Also, the US is the leader in the markets also, so where the US goes, indices elsewhere tend to trend similarly (in the mid-short term).

I was thinking about using multiple linear regression to test if it is the confounder, but I am not certain about this either. In my reading, it seems that in MLR you want to see if there's a 3rd variable which is the confounder. That seems like a different path than to find out which variable is the confounding variable.

Does anyone have some advice?


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