I want to write down the mathematical model for the following arima.test
output:
> auto.arima(x)
Series: x
ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)[12] with non-zero mean
Coefficients:
ar1 sar1 mean
0.4706 0.5623 6304.4752
s.e. 0.1332 0.1262 828.9899
sigma^2 estimated as 3550092: log likelihood=-538.48
AIC=1084.96 AICc=1085.68 BIC=1093.33
I understand this is a seasonal model with period 12, and p, d, and q are respectively 1, 0, and 0, for both the series and the seasonal parts.
However, I fail to interpretate the meaning of the coefficients and how to write this model together, what kind of formula I need to apply.