I am new to R. I am trying to apply forecasting model Time Series (TS) Model as follows:
- Plotting original data,
- Simple Moving Average,
- Auto correction(AC), Partial AC, Differencing of TS etc to get stationary time series,
- Fitting optimal model which gives minimum AIC, residuals from ARIMA/ARMA
- Normality test for residuals
- forecasting for future values
The forecast figures are not coming out with the accuracy that I expected. Please find following weekly incidents.
Can anyone please help me with the right approach and sample code?
There are some outliers in the data (# of incidents per week) due to new release of application, seasonality effect and holiday period.
March 11, 2011/ March 25, 2011/ June 24, 2011/December 02, 2011/ December 30, 2011/
March 30, 2012/ April 20, 2012/
Time_Stamp Wkly_Cnt
1 November 19, 2010 9
2 November 26, 2010 22
3 December 03, 2010 11
4 December 10, 2010 12
5 December 17, 2010 18
6 December 31, 2010 17
7 January 07, 2011 14
8 January 14, 2011 21
9 January 21, 2011 16
10 January 28, 2011 22
11 February 04, 2011 20
12 February 11, 2011 31
13 February 18, 2011 38
14 February 25, 2011 37
15 March 04, 2011 32
16 March 18, 2011 34
17 April 01, 2011 28
18 April 08, 2011 32
19 April 15, 2011 30
20 April 29, 2011 30
21 May 06, 2011 25
22 May 13, 2011 19
23 May 20, 2011 17
24 May 27, 2011 28
25 June 03, 2011 13
26 June 10, 2011 17
27 June 17, 2011 17
28 July 01, 2011 14
29 July 08, 2011 22
30 July 15, 2011 19
31 July 22, 2011 11
32 July 29, 2011 14
33 August 05, 2011 14
34 August 12, 2011 21
35 August 19, 2011 20
36 August 26, 2011 16
37 September 02, 2011 16
38 September 09, 2011 10
39 September 16, 2011 24
40 September 23, 2011 12
41 September 30, 2011 17
42 October 07, 2011 32
43 October 14, 2011 29
44 October 21, 2011 19
45 October 28, 2011 13
46 November 04, 2011 12
47 November 11, 2011 18
48 November 18, 2011 14
49 November 25, 2011 17
50 December 09, 2011 36
51 December 16, 2011 20
52 December 23, 2011 22
53 January 06, 2012 31
54 January 13, 2012 29
55 January 20, 2012 20
56 January 27, 2012 27
57 February 03, 2012 14
58 February 10, 2012 23
59 February 17, 2012 20
60 February 24, 2012 15
61 March 02, 2012 26
62 March 09, 2012 19
63 March 16, 2012 25
64 March 23, 2012 26
65 April 06, 2012 12
66 April 13, 2012 20
67 April 27, 2012 20
68 May 04, 2012 16
69 May 11, 2012 17
70 May 18, 2012 17
71 May 25, 2012 20
72 June 01, 2012 14
73 June 08, 2012 23
74 June 15, 2012 21
75 June 22, 2012 22
76 June 29, 2012 19