1
$\begingroup$

I want to predict $y$ with $x_1$ and $x_2$, including an out of sample prediction interval. However, $y$ has large outliers, so I log transform $y$ and estimate $\log(y) = a + b_1 x_1 + b_2 x_2 + e$, where $e$ is my normally distributed error term. Here are some data.

. clear

. set obs 2001
number of observations (_N) was 0, now 2,001

. global X x_1 x_2

. 
. generate x_1 = runiform()

. generate x_2 = runiform()

. generate y = exp(5*x_1 + 5*x_2 + rnormal())

. replace x_1 = 1 if (_n == 1)
(1 real change made)

. replace x_2 = 1 if (_n == 1)
(1 real change made)

. replace y = exp(5*x_1 + 5*x_2 + 0) if (_n == 1)
(1 real change made)

. generate logy = log(y)

In Stata, normally, I would use predict to estimate $\hat y$ and predict, stdf to estimate prediction error $SE$, then $\hat y \pm 2 \times SE$ to generate upper and lower bounds for my prediction interval.

. regress y $X if (_n > 1)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     2,000
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 1997)      =     47.60
       Model |  1.9090e+10         2  9.5451e+09   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  4.0041e+11     1,997   200507843   R-squared       =    0.0455
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.0446
       Total |  4.1950e+11     1,999   209857103   Root MSE        =     14160

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           y |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         x_1 |   7837.173   1104.463     7.10   0.000     5671.154    10003.19
         x_2 |   7390.569   1084.627     6.81   0.000      5263.45    9517.687
       _cons |  -5763.221   849.7131    -6.78   0.000    -7429.638   -4096.804
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predict yhat_1, xb

. predict yhat_1_se, stdf

. generate yhat_1_lb = yhat_1 - 2*yhat_1_se

. generate yhat_1_ub = yhat_1 + 2*yhat_1_se

. list y yhat_1* if (_n == 1)

      +------------------------------------------------------+
      |        y     yhat_1   yhat_1~e   yhat_~lb   yhat_~ub |
      |------------------------------------------------------|
   1. | 22026.46   9464.521   14184.66   -18904.8   37833.84 |
      +------------------------------------------------------+

However, because I log transformed $y$, my code above is not correct and I can't apply this technique to estimate a $\hat y$ prediction interval. I can use predictnl to estimate $\hat y$. But there is no , stdf option for predictnl. How can I adjust predictnl's confidence interval to generate a prediction error? Is there a manual solution?

. regress logy $X if (_n > 1)

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =     2,000
-------------+----------------------------------   F(2, 1997)      =   4246.62
       Model |  8975.08597         2  4487.54298   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  2110.29548     1,997  1.05673284   R-squared       =    0.8096
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.8094
       Total |  11085.3814     1,999  5.54546346   Root MSE        =     1.028

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        logy |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
         x_1 |   5.237723   .0801803    65.32   0.000     5.080477    5.394969
         x_2 |   5.203039   .0787403    66.08   0.000     5.048617    5.357461
       _cons |   -.200541   .0616864    -3.25   0.001    -.3215174   -.0795646
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. predictnl yhat_2 = exp(xb()), ci(yhat_2_lb yhat_2_ub) level(95)
note: confidence intervals calculated using Z critical values

. list y yhat_2* if (_n == 1)

      +-------------------------------------------+
      |        y     yhat_2   yha~2_lb   yha~2_ub |
      |-------------------------------------------|
   1. | 22026.46   28007.31   24680.86   31333.77 |
      +-------------------------------------------+

How can I adjust predictnl's confidence interval to generate a prediction error? Is there a manual solution?

Improve this question
$\endgroup$
3
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Although your question asks about a prediction interval, the Stata code seems to be computing confidence intervals. The former are easy to deal with--you just back-transform them--while the latter are not. It matters very much, then, that you clarify what you are trying to ask. Could you do that for us? $\endgroup$ – whuber♦ Nov 30 '18 at 21:47
  • $\begingroup$ @whuber I would like a prediction interval from predictnl. But, you're right, my code generates confidence interval because I don't know how to get prediction interval from predictnl. $\endgroup$ – Richard Herron Nov 30 '18 at 21:50
  • $\begingroup$ @whuber In other words... I have to estimate my regression in logs. But I want my predicted value and prediction interval in levels, not logs. $\endgroup$ – Richard Herron Nov 30 '18 at 21:55