I want to forecast the sales for next whole year. Data is available at a day level and I need to forecast at a month level.It is for a Jewelry brand in India. There is seasonality in the data. Also I want to impute flags for festivals,discount offer etc.The model is quite dependent on these flags, as events occur during different time periods in a year.
Which forecasting technique do you think will work best here? I am already using TSLM,ELM,ARIMA,Naive,Seasonal Naive. TSLM & ELM together is giving me avg accuracy of about 10% with a range of 0-25%. Arima/Arimax/Naive are failing big time.
Kindly suggest the appropriate model to be used.