Let's say there are only two candidates(Candidate A & Candidate B) in an election and both of them ran for office in both elections. Candidate A received 48% of the vote in the first election and 51% of the vote in the second election. We will assume that there is a fixed group of voters and all of them voted in both elections. So, if 100 people voted in first election, exact same 100 people also voted in second election. Let's also assume a correlation coefficient of .8 between the voting habit of a voter(voting for the same or different candidate) in the first and second election. What is the probability that a randomly chosen voter voted for Candidate A in both elections?
N.B:- This is the same question as posted here https://www.quora.com/Bush-received-48-51-of-the-total-votes-in-two-elections-Whats-the-probability-that-a-randomly-chosen-voter-voted-for-Bush-in-both-the-elections . I am trying to better understand the answer posted by Aaron Brown as I dont understand the details of his answer.