2
$\begingroup$

Suppose we have an autoregressive process, $$y_t=\phi y_{t-1} +u_t$$ where $|\phi|<1$. If $u_t$ is an i.i.d random variable this process is stationarity. What if $$u_t=u_{t-1}+g+\epsilon_t$$ where $\epsilon_t$ is white noise and $g$ is a constant? I tried to use the lag operator to show that it's still stationary (due to the presence of $g$) , but I am having some issues. Is $y$ still stationary in that case? Thanks in advance.

$\endgroup$

1 Answer 1

4
$\begingroup$

No, it is not. As you recognize, $u_t$ is nonstationary, and adding $g$ creates an additional drift, and certainly does not restore stationarity. By recursive substitution, you can write (assuming the process starts at 0) $$ u_t=\sum_{s=1}^t\epsilon_s+g\cdot t, $$ and using this process to drive $y_t$ "translates" the nonstationarity to $y_t$.

Illustration:

n <- 100
g <- .2
eps <- rnorm(n)
u <- cumsum(eps) + g*(1:n)
y <- arima.sim(n=n, list(ar=0.5), innov = u)
plot(y)

enter image description here

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service and acknowledge that you have read and understand our privacy policy and code of conduct.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.