I have question that I haven't been able to find an answer to.

Assume a scenario where there are two raffle events. There are 25 tickets in one and 100 in the other. Also assume that, in both events all but one ticket were sold. You have a chance to be the last participant in either of those events. There will be a guaranteed winner in both of them. Which one would you choose?

Many people I asked this question said the event with 25 people will be more logical since there is higher chance of winning it. My struggle starts here. Although chances of winning the first event is 1/25 and second event is 1/100, every other participant has the same chance as me. Since everyone has equal chance of winning the prize, there shouldn't be any difference between the two cases and my choice wouldn't have any affect on my chances.

Is this logic correct or am I missing something? Thank you very much for your answers in advance.


Everyone participating in raffle A has the same chance of winning raffle A : 1/25 chance. Everyone participating in raffle B has the same chance of winning raffle B: 1/100 chance.

The two raffles are completely independent of one another, and the outcome on one (win/loss/non-participation) has no effect on the other.

You talk about 'the prize'. There is no 'the prize'. There are two prizes.

The choice of which raffle to join should depend not only on your chances (four times better for Raffle a than Raffle B), but also on how desirable you find the prize for that raffle.


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