I have time-series (daily) data and I want to understand the general trend.
My current approach is:
Calculate the 7-day simple moving average.
Add a line of best fit (linear least squares regression).
Plot, then review metrics such as r, r^2, etc.
Question: is it good practice to draw a line-of-best fit on a moving average? I'm not very experienced but my understanding is MA and linear trend lines are both trend lines, so I'm not sure if it's OK to combine them in this way.
Raw data looks like this:
day + count
2015-01-01 | 123
2015-01-02 | 290
2015-01-03 | 329
2015-01-04 | 276
Let me know if more detail would help- any direction on this is much appreciated.