I have a daily rainfall data measured in (cm), i have put some threshold and derived a categorical variable whether it is a rainy day or a dry day.
From this data i want to calculate Probability of a future day given last n-days, e.g.
what is the probability of a day being a rainy day given last 3 days were rainy day? there can be four instances -
- P(rainy day| previous 3 rainy days) ?
- P(rainy day| previous 3 dry days) ?
- P(dry day | previous 3 rainy days) ?
- P(dry day | previous 3 dry days) ?