I recently started to learn transfer-function model, which, more specifically, is transfer-function-noise model(TFN). I have also attempted modeling it in R.
I found one thing that is baffling.
according to Tsay(2009) Lecture notes, Montgomery et al(2015), and Bisgaard et al(2011), in practice, the transfer function Model comes with innovations (the noise term). However if I understand correctly, the arima/arimax
function from R package TSA
does not provide an argument to account for the ARIMA noise term. e.g. they provide xtransf
and transfer
to help formulate the transfer function itself, but nothing for modeling the noise term which is normally taken to follow ARIMA.
Do they just not model the noise term like I said or I missed a critical part?
Or, they are taking the original data as an ARIMA noise series and model it with arimax
and use the transfer function arguments to model the change in mean function (Cryer, 2008)? Cryer(2008) has presented the intervention analysis model, which is suitably derived from transfer funciton-noise model, as:
$Y_{t} = m_{t} + N_{t}\space\space\space (1)$
a more TFN-alike representation of $(1)$ is from Montgomery(2015):
$y_{t} = \frac{w(B)}{\delta(B)}\xi_{t}^T + \frac{\theta(B)}{\phi(B)}\epsilon_{t} = v(B)\xi_{t}^T + N_{t}$
In intervention analysis $\xi_{t}^T$ is just a dummy/indicator variable.