# What is point-wise variance?

While reading The Elements of Statistical Learning, I've encountered the term "point-wise variance" several times. While I have a vague idea of what it likely means, I'd be grateful to know

• How is it defined?
• How is it derived?
• This typically means the variance of the estimator of a function evaluated at a point. This is, $\mbox{Var}[\hat{f}(x_0)]$. See for example pp. 146. – user10525 Oct 29 '12 at 12:34
• Thanks for pointing me towards the definition. I still don't understand - how can a single point have variance? Variance describes deviation from the expectation, so multiple points are needed for such a deviation to be possible, yet evaluating $\hat{f}(x_0)$ gives only one point (?). Is this the variance obtained from estimating the function at $x_0$ over multiple samples from the same population? – miura Oct 29 '12 at 13:16
• Note that the variance is not calculated for $x_0$ but for $\hat{f}(x_0)$. Morever, the estimator $\hat{f}$ is a random variable. An example of this is a kernel density estimator $\hat{f}_h(x_0)=\frac{1}{nh}\sum_{j=1}^n K\left(\frac{x_0-X_j}{h}\right)$ based on a sample $X_1,...,X_n$. Here the variance is calculated with respect to the sample $X_1,...,X_n$ and it can be calculated for each value $x_0$ in the support of the kernel. This is, $\mbox{Var}(\hat{f}(x_0))$ is a function of $x_0$. – user10525 Oct 29 '12 at 14:10
• So one could say point-wise variance is equivalent to the standard error of the statistic $\hat{f}(x_0)$, $X_1,...,X_n$ denotes repeated samples, and $Var(\hat{f}(x_0))$ stems from sampling variability? – miura Oct 29 '12 at 15:02
• I agree with your interpretation $\mbox{modulo}$ a square root. – user10525 Oct 29 '12 at 15:06

What is the variance of the fit, i.e. $\mathrm{Var}(\hat f(x_0))$? Least squares returns variance estimates for each of the fitted coefficients $\hat \beta_j$, as well as the covariances between pairs of coefficient estimates. We can use these to compute the estimated variance of $\hat f(x_0)$.