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I found a relationship that seems strong, but I'm not finding corroboration of it in research papers, so, am I missing something obvious?

I have data (for simplicity of explanation)

Time | Y | X 
2000 | 1 | 3
2001 | 2 | 4
2002 | 3 | 5
2003 | 4 | 6
2004 | 5 | 7

Using OLS regression I specify a model of the form:

$$y = Bx_{t-3} + error$$

i.e., regressing Y against the X of three periods prior; thus predicting Y at t+3 using X.

It fits well. What am I doing wrong?

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  • $\begingroup$ What are you doing wrong? $\endgroup$ – user2974951 Jul 11 at 6:12

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