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I have designed and tested a time series model where I am able to examine the impact of various marketing channels on dependent variables (Such as sales, revenue, website traffic, etc).

The model has helped me identify the channels that have a strong correlation with the dependent variable(s) and channels that have little to no impact. I have also identified the point of diminishing returns for each channel. Using this model, I am able to optimize my media spend and properly allocate my money to optimize my goals.

Now, I'd like to run a simulation before I begin changing how I allocate my media spend. Let's say I identify a channel that is worthless and I want to use that money in different marketing channels (keeping in mind the point of diminishing returns). I'd like to forecast how the changes in media spend will impact my dependent variables (Sales, Website Traffic, etc).

How can this be done?

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what you might consider is doing a monte carlo where your predictor series can either be specified or simulated. Forecasts can then be made resulting in a family of forecasts for each forecast period for the output series.

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  • $\begingroup$ If you are happy with my response please accept it to close the question $\endgroup$
    – IrishStat
    Commented Aug 15, 2019 at 8:22

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