# Assuming equal changes in terms of percentage points for two populations. Very easy question, but a reference needed

How to explain to non-statisticians that if we have e.g. obesity rate equal to 40% in men and 12% in women, the target values in men and women in 2030 should NOT be equal to 38% in men and 10% in women? Do you know any paper/guide that would explain it to policy-makers that one should take into account the baseline level, when assuming the target values? Actually, I would like to show that time series of social indicators are more likely to show exponential trends instead of linear trends. Any help will be appreciated.

• Why do you think the rates can't decrease? Second, what is a forcasted target? A forecast is a guess; a target is a wish. – Dave Aug 20 '19 at 10:12
• I meant target values. Actually, I would like to show that it is unfair to demand decrease of obesity rate by 2 percentage points both in men and women, since the baseline levels equal to 40% and 12%, respectively. I would like to justify the need of assuming a relative reduction, as Stephan Kolassa stated. – Harel Aug 20 '19 at 10:32
• That's a huge difference, and you should edit the post to reflect this. – Dave Aug 20 '19 at 10:34