I am working on my first project with a lot of data and outcome prediction.

One goal is to calculate the expected outcome of a game between two parties. (Parties don't have to be of equal "strength" or Elo, they just have each EloA and EloB).

I have a formula to calculate the expected outcome for winning of Team A (outcome for Team B = 1- exp(TeamA)) but in this kind of scenario it is possible to draw if both teams score the same amount of points.

The true outcome for TeamA is 1 if they win, 0.5 if they draw and 0 if they lose. I want to see if my prediction is correct so I have to compare both values. But the possibility for the expected outcome to be exact 0.5 is very, very low, whereas an actual draw is very likely.

Would you advice to compare both values like this:

Win = 1 , 0,66.. ; Draw = 0,66.. , 0,33..; Lose = 0,33.. , 0

Or is there any other way to compare the expected outcome to the actual?


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