Above you can see a game line for basketball match between Milano and Olympiacos teams. What I know is this:
I can calculate probability from coefficient using this formula: p = 1 / (c(1+m)) where m=0.025, 0.05, 0.075, ...
Coefficient in Spread near -3.5 (1.90) means probability p1=0.5 for Milano team to win a match by 4 or more points(marked as -4, -5, -6,...)
Coefficient near +3.5 (1.90) means a probability(p2 = 1- p1 = 0.5) for Milano team to win by 3, 2 or 1 point or to lose the game(marked as -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3, ...)
Field Total contains total points of the game
- Coefficient near O 165.5 means a probability(p_o=0.488) for both teams to get a total of 166 or more points
- Coefficient near U 165.5 means a probability(p_u=1-p_o=0.512) for both teams to get a total of 165 or less points.
- In the same way coefficients in Money Line column means probabilities for one or another team to win the match.
I need to calculate the distribution of Spreads using which I could calculate the probability of Milano team winning by any amount of points.
I do not want you to give me the solution, I just want to know, where do I even start with this?
I want to write a python app which would take these coefficients as an input and give me a table with distributions as an output later, but I need to figure out the maths...