So a game can have 3 outcomes:
- Team 1 wins: 36% chance. Payout is 2.15
- Team 2 wins: 34% chance. Payout is 2.45
- Game is a draw: 30% chance. Payout is 2.66
How should I be thinking about making one or even 2 bets to increase my chance of winning a bet (not maximizing profit)?
My thinking so far was, if I bet on both teams, and one of them wins I'd make some profit. Are my odds of winning such a bet 2/3 or 70%? (adding 34%+36%)
Then afterwards i realized since the odds of 36% and 34% are actually so close to each other, doesn't that mean that a draw is the more likely outcome? And my chances of winning a bet would be much better with going with a draw plus Team 1?
My thinking is somehow flawed and proper maths would help.