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So a game can have 3 outcomes:

  • Team 1 wins: 36% chance. Payout is 2.15
  • Team 2 wins: 34% chance. Payout is 2.45
  • Game is a draw: 30% chance. Payout is 2.66

How should I be thinking about making one or even 2 bets to increase my chance of winning a bet (not maximizing profit)?

My thinking so far was, if I bet on both teams, and one of them wins I'd make some profit. Are my odds of winning such a bet 2/3 or 70%? (adding 34%+36%)

Then afterwards i realized since the odds of 36% and 34% are actually so close to each other, doesn't that mean that a draw is the more likely outcome? And my chances of winning a bet would be much better with going with a draw plus Team 1?

My thinking is somehow flawed and proper maths would help.

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To maximize the chance of winning, with one bet, bet on team 1, with two bets, bet on teams 1 and 2. The fact that the chances of team 1 and team 2 are about the same does not mean that a draw is more likely - you are told the likelihood of a draw - it is 30%, which is lower than either team 1 winning or team 2 winning.

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