I was hoping someone could recommend a good book on statistical methods for time-series on small data samples. We are really looking to do some forecasting/extrapolation given 13 years of previous data. I am looking at human resources data, and trying to understand variations in the gender balance in an organization. Hence we have information on men and women hired, promoted, and leaving from an organization over these 13 years. The observations are yearly, so if my metric is the percentage of female employees, then there are only 13 overall yearly observations--though we know these metrics at each organization level.
I know most time-series statistical methods don't make many assumptions about the data-generating mechanism. That feature of time-series models means that they often need a lot of data to give good estimates.
We are actually using a simulation based approach, since we know the data generating mechanism very well--in terms of hiring, attrition, and promotion practices.
Hence if anyone has any recommendations on time series forecasting based on small samples, please provide your suggestions or recommendations below. Thanks.