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I was trying to show that in polynomial regression, the model overfits the data when the degree of polynomial $k$ increases. To demonstrate this, I had 30 2D datapoints and $k = 1,\dots,18$. I plotted the MSE training error against $k$.

However the plot shows that the training error kept decreasing until $k=10$, after which point the error rate goes up and down randomly.

From this answer I realise the problem might be that my design matrix is ill-conditioned so the solution becomes numerically unstable.

How can I get around this problem?

Thanks.

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    $\begingroup$ Have you used orthogonal polynomials? $\endgroup$
    – Dave
    Nov 6, 2019 at 16:43
  • $\begingroup$ @Dave Hi, I haven't used them. In fact I don't think I learned that in class. $\endgroup$
    – FrankieYin
    Nov 6, 2019 at 16:49
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    $\begingroup$ I found two links on CV: stats.stackexchange.com/questions/241703/… and stats.stackexchange.com/questions/258307/…. My suspicion is that the issue is numerical instability. $\endgroup$
    – Dave
    Nov 6, 2019 at 17:09
  • $\begingroup$ That's a truly eluding issue that is not directly obvious unless you delve into the hairy math behind these models. The ill-conditioned matrix is a suspect, since you could end up with more parameters than observations if you are using interaction parameters too (i.e. $x^5y^5, x^4y^6, x^3y^7$ ...and so on). Notice also that more parameters does not necessarily mean higher marginal likelihood, which will result in suddenly underfitting the data after some point. I explained this a bit in the following answer > answer $\endgroup$
    – Ammar Rashed
    Jun 3, 2022 at 0:05

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