I was recently taking a look at some political projections (similar to the ones published by 538), and I am wondering about a particular function used to calculate the likelihood of a given party winning a political district. The function $F(p)$, defined as $$F(p) = \frac{1}{1 + e^{-0.2809 \cdot p}},$$ where $p \in [-100,100]$ is the Cook's PVI. Is this type of function – that is, one of the form $f(x) = \frac{1}{1+e^{cx}}$ – commonly used for predicting outcomes like this?


Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.