I would like to calculate the probability of a decisive vote in USA presidential election. This is a follow up question to this one.
Is it ok to assume that in USA, there are two conditions of casting a decisive vote:
- (A) your vote is needed to break a tie in your state's election
- (B) the selection of your electors would alter the outcome of Electoral College voting
If so, is it correct to assume that the probability of decisive vote in USA is of conditional probability nature:
$P(decisive) = P(A) \!\cdot\!\ P(B)$