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I'm a beginner in Time Series Forecasting and I have some basic questions. I hope someone would give me some advice. Thanks!

assuming that I have the daily sales data of 2018 to today (3/5/2020) and I want to predict the future (from today) one year daily sale. how to make the a one-year daily prediction?

Thanks

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  • $\begingroup$ What methods are you thinking about for this prediction ? From a practical point of view, chaining predictions in the way you describe will degrade your prediction accuracy really quick regardless of what you use $\endgroup$
    – AnarKi
    Commented Mar 5, 2020 at 23:40
  • $\begingroup$ I agree with you. what is a good method for this long term (365 days) prediction? would you please give me some advice? thanks. $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 6, 2020 at 2:34
  • $\begingroup$ I suggest you edit your question. You didn't mention a thing about what you would like to use, granularity of data etc. your question is very vague... Anyway if you only have sales data i.e. 1 feature, then lookup ARIMA and the likes based on the data specifics (seasonality, etc.). Forget Machine learning for the moment (as tagged) since you wont be really taking advantage of that. $\endgroup$
    – AnarKi
    Commented Mar 7, 2020 at 11:05

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If I was unfamiliar with time series I would run exponential smoothing models, there are many and I would run more than one against a hold out data set to see which works best. They are a lot simpler to do than ARIMA, have a good track record of predicting, and are robust to violations of assumptions. Nothing is perfect, they are a good starting point.

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