This is very basic, but I just want certainty that what I'm doing isn't stupid.
Say I have a set of data which gives me a probability of an event A happening each day for a week.
day 1: 0.1 day 2: 0.15 day 3: 0.05 day 4: 0.1 day 5: 0.1 day 6: 0.05 day 7: 0.05
Now, what I want is the number of event A we expect to have happened after these 7 days.
What I would do, considering this binomial distribution, is:
E = 0.1 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.05 + 0.05 = 0.6
Hence, we expect 0.6 event A to happen during that week.
Is this correct?
As an aside, I'll then want to apply a Poisson process on this to obtain the probability of the event A happening within the next year, that is P(t < 1y) = 1 - exp(-0.6/7 * 365)