I am looking for some techniques that would help me measure the (over-time) impact of a variable to another.

So let's say we have annual time series data for GDP for 5 countries and I wanted to see how much educational spending influences the GDP over a 20 year period. I understand the impact would not be instant so maybe a distributed lag model is required but what other methods can I use to measure that?

Relatedly, how would I measure the impact to GDP of a material increase of educational spending for one of the countries of interest?

Please assume all data is accurate and available and that I will be using R (in case you'd like to suggest some libraries).


  • $\begingroup$ SARIMAX autobox.com/pdfs/SARMAX.pdf is the general approach when you only have 1 dependent series . This is an ADL or PDL model which allow for purely contemporaneous structure , if adequate. $\endgroup$ – IrishStat Mar 27 '20 at 12:48

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