I am practicing MA and AR modelling by using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation values. My data is in the image below; I can see that only at lag 12 there is a value that might be considered but I have a dilemma: what model is this if any?
- To be a MA of higher order the autocorr should be 0 After lag 12, but not before.
- To be an AR I should see value oscillating and decaying up to lag 12.
Am I correct in my thinking or am I wrong?
I performed the Box-Jenkins test (
lbqtest) with Matlab and only at lag 12 I have the rejection of the null hypothesis ( h =1 ) for an Alpha of 0.10.