# Model selection when AIC scores are very close

Let's say you have a twice differenced time series. The AIC for two potential models are 2000 and 2000.1. As a rule of thumb you usually choose the one with the lower AIC, but if the model with AIC 2000.1 is a slightly simpler model would you be more inclined to choose it since both AIC's are within 2 units of each other?

• Related. Apr 18, 2020 at 17:18

• @user54285, "meaningful" is not a statistical term. But you could embed this in a problem of utility maximization and see how different the expected utilities are. It is certainly possible they are "meaningfully" different. E.g. it is possible that you expect to earn \$2000 from using one model and \$1000 from using another. The difference is "meaningful" to me. We can up the stakes until it becomes "meaningful" to you. Apr 19, 2020 at 7:07