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What is the best book to learn probability - Poisson, binomial, regression, etc.

I am working as an odds adjuster at a bookmaker and need to advance my skills to an odds compiler level.

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    $\begingroup$ Perhaps few here know what the mathematical level required of an odds adjuster is, or that of an odds compiler: it would probably help you to get better answers if you elaborated a little. $\endgroup$ – Scortchi - Reinstate Monica Jan 10 '13 at 20:05
  • $\begingroup$ I understand. Hence, I stated poisson, binomial, etc. As these are what is required in the field. Most basic probability books cover these distributions at a very basic level. I am looking for, not an advanced but a complete book which would cover say "Poisson Regression" and not just "poisson" or "regression", separately. Again, appreciate all the help as at other forums I havent been getting many answers. $\endgroup$ – O P Jan 10 '13 at 20:18
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    $\begingroup$ Saying 'Poisson' doesn't help all that much - Poisson processes are covered in graduate level monographs & in 'Statistics for Dummies'. $\endgroup$ – Scortchi - Reinstate Monica Jan 10 '13 at 20:44
  • $\begingroup$ you are right. How about a probability book which will arm me with tools to deal with such a question "Wigan scores after 30 minutes. Calculate home, away and draw in percentage terms with poisson regression, assuming pre-match odds were 5.00 - 4.00 - 1.80 for Win/Draw/Loss respectively" $\endgroup$ – O P Jan 10 '13 at 20:58
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Grinstead & Snell is very good (& free):

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html

(Note it doesn't cover statistical topics e.g. regression, just probability.)

As you mention Poisson regression in a comment:

Dobson, An Introduction to Generalized Models

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You could find some of the following of interest:

Calculated-Bets-Computers-Gambling[1] and Mathletics-Gamblers-Enthusiasts-Mathematics-Basketball[2] books introducing probability directly in the gambling context.

The following might be too advanced for you, but maybe still useful:

Anthology of Statistics in Sports[3] and Statistical Reasoning in Sports[4]

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    $\begingroup$ I added the post notice because this answer is unintelligible without following the links. Please at least indicate what you are recommending. Much better would be to include the reasons for your recommendations. $\endgroup$ – whuber Aug 31 '13 at 18:39

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