Problem when creating a probability of achieving a sales goal So, I'm making a probability of a sales person achieving his/her goal by the end of a month. The thing is, I'm using the sales history and Bayes Theorem to do it.
By using Bayes theorem, I was calculating P(A) as the probability of achieving the goal and P(B) the probability that they had a percentage X in relation to the goal by the time I did the analysis. For example:

*

*If by the time I did the analysis, the sales person had reached 80% of their goal, I would take all the observations that had a percentage lower or equal to 80% and divide by the total observations, resulting in P(B). Then I would apply Bayes Theorem using P(A) and P(B).

But doing it this way, it throws the probability of reaching the goal to the bottom, because I'm taking records of people that did not only had 80%, but 10%, 5%. Is there a more efficient way for me to calculate P(B)?
 A: Let me start off by stating two things. First, I love this question.  However, I think it could benefit from some rethinking. Secondly, this is not a full fledged answer more than it is some thinking about your problem.
You're interested in computing  $ P(\mbox{meet sales goal} \vert x\mbox{% of the way there})$.  Because the goals are in dollars, we can express this in terms of money
$$P( \mbox{sell atleast \$1000} \vert \mbox{Presently sold \$} 1000\times p) $$
Here $p$ is proportion of the way you are to your goal.  Bayes theorem requires you compute
$$P( \mbox{Presently sold \$} 1000\times p) \vert \mbox{sell atleast \$1000}) \times P(\mbox{sell atleast \$1000}) $$
in addition to the denominator, which we will ignore for now.  But something seems strange.  The first term asks me for the probability I sell what would be less than my goal conditioned on the fact that I have already met it. This term is 0 when $p<1$ or equivalently whenever I have sold less than my goal. If I have understood your question correctly, this seems problematic.  And the reason I think it is problematic is because your statements about meeting sales goals are not about parameters, they are about the likelihood.
The reason I ask how goals are measured is because I still think this can be done, but it requires asking a different question.  Instead of asking what is the probability the sales person reaches their goal conditioned on how much they've already sold, why not just ask what is the probability the sales person sells more than x dollars, conditioned on the sales person and perhaps their prior sales history? (which I assume is known and informs their sales goals).  This seems more tractable to me and is more amenable to Bayesian analysis.
EDIT:  Here is a small example to my approach.  Let's say I have one sales person, and her previous weekly sales numbers for the past 6 weeks.
Let's set this person's monthly goal to 30.  If we had a Bayesian model for this person's average weekly sales + a likelihood, we could use the posterior predictive distribution to estimate each week the probability she surpasses her goal.  Here is an example in code.  I'm using a negative binomial for ease, but you should think about what your problem requires.

library(tidyverse)
library(brms)

dgp = function(n) rnbinom(n, mu = 5, size = 100)

last_six = dgp(6)
d = tibble(y = last_six)

#Probably a bad prior, you do better
prior_intercept = set_prior("normal(log(4),0.5)", class = 'Intercept')
model = brm(y~1, 
            data = d,
            prior = prior_intercept,
            family = negbinomial(),
            control = list(adapt_delta = 0.9)
            )


#Begining of month
predictions = posterior_predict(model)
monthly_sales = apply(predictions[,1:4], 1, sum)
prob_meet = mean(monthly_sales>30)
prob_meet

#after week 1
y1 = dgp(1)
d = tibble(y = c(last_six,y1))
model = update(model, newdata = d)
predictions = posterior_predict(model)
monthly_sales = apply(predictions[,1:3], 1, sum)
prob_meet = mean(monthly_sales>(30-y1))
prob_meet

#after week 2
y2 = dgp(1)
d = tibble(y = c(last_six,y1, y2))
model = update(model, newdata = d)
predictions = posterior_predict(model)
monthly_sales = apply(predictions[,1:2], 1, sum)
prob_meet = mean(monthly_sales>(30-y1-y2))
prob_meet

#and so on...

Each week, you are subtracting what this person already sold from their monthly goal and also conditioning (i.e. using the sales to inform the model) on the future probability of making the goal.
This is essentially what you're looking for, except it is happening on the raw scale rather than the unit interval.
