1
$\begingroup$

The following data is for the year 1960 to 2002. This year is 2013.Can we forecast future time series, including 2013, with out filling 2003 to 2010 missed data using an Autobox, minitab etc.? If we have to fill missed data, how can we fill it?

Thanks!

Kas

2.76 2.11 1.7 1.25 1.25 2.14 19.27 42.97 21.54 6.95 3.68 2.87 2.18 1.83 1.57 1.38 1.08 2.17 24.52 33.48 24.86 9.86 7.55 6.05 2.61 1.71 1.56 1.01 1.21 2.13 18.08 31.41 22.5 8.18 4.3 2.97 2.2 1.54 1.46 1.35 1.8 2.84 18.33 34.43 20.46 6.25 7.72 4.29 2.43 1.49 1.13 1.2 1.43 2.94 42.58 51.32 30.71 13 6.12 3.95 2.68 2.06 2.01 1.71 1.26 2.37 11.52 26.97 14.76 10.5 7.43 4.33 2.16 1.62 1.55 1.16 1.33 2.16 16.43 25.17 17.43 4.81 3.39 2.29 1.73 1.38 1.46 1.15 1.06 3.11 24.04 35.75 23.49 9.82 4.44 3.13 2.54 1.77 1.7 1.35 1.42 4.65 32.49 27.43 19.49 5.02 4.86 5.02 2.35 1.76 1.8 1.36 1.39 3.04 31.74 51.66 27.06 6.78 4.06 3.21 2.03 1.71 1.66 1.45 2.4 5.38 22.52 38.41 21.69 7.58 3.69 2.64 2.02 1.55 1.36 1.15 1.22 3.5 18.3 41.48 21.6 6.71 5.08 2.85 2.19 1.41 1.28 1.07 1.11 2.73 10.74 21.15 14.17 4.18 2.87 1.75 1.34 0.98 0.89 0.79 1.12 2.47 13.34 46.49 17.1 7.07 3.34 2.32 1.84 1.3 1.21 0.96 2.23 3.18 25.22 35.36 27.7 8.21 3.94 2.7 2.17 2.11 1.61 1.23 1.26 3.9 49.69 96.27 67.47 17.04 6.28 6.01 3.48 3.36 3.06 2.5 3.52 14.98 28.34 44.81 24.12 7.49 5.12 3.13 2.29 1.55 1.47 1.09 1 2.88 19.7 24.31 15.24 14.28 4.27 2.53 2.42 1.63 1.43 1.46 1.63 8.79 33.17 32.96 26.45 8.96 4.56 3.43 2.49 1.7 1.48 1.17 1.53 3.3 14.07 29.24 19.26 7.79 3.14 2.29 1.65 1.27 1.16 1.15 1.16 7.56 34.35 34.35 12.84 6.6 2.8 2.06 1.73 1.39 1.43 0.96 1.81 4.73 42.59 35.78 26.99 7.51 2.64 1.97 1.79 1.52 1.73 1.42 1.67 6.25 26.93 32.81 21.82 7.99 2.6 1.99 1.54 1.11 1.12 0.85 0.89 3.56 5.86 39.91 14.07 6.66 2.89 1.91 1.36 0.89 0.89 0.78 0.9 10.72 22.42 21.67 17.46 4.62 2.55 2.16 1.37 0.93 0.84 0.75 1.01 3.84 15.71 32.72 16.24 5.93 3.36 2.1 1.49 0.94 0.85 0.65 0.55 3.57 14.13 15.95 15.58 7.45 2.85 2.19 1.57 1.21 1.71 0.89 2.33 9.44 15.77 19.92 12.85 6.6 3.56 2.41 1.99 1.3 1.17 0.7 1.02 6.34 40.25 35.71 26.34 15.6 5.03 3.17 2.41 1.55 1.47 1.19 1.41 7.93 27.54 32.99 16.63 6.4 3.09 1.87 1.43 1.46 1.35 1.06 1.13 2.08 18.02 56.17 21.99 5.82 2.95 2.09 1.62 1.11 1.02 1.28 1.35 4.47 31.81 55.78 26.49 6.13 4.73 3.49 2.55 1.68 1.55 1.49 1.46 3.17 16.67 40.25 20.07 14.23 7.77 4.15 3.6 2.33 1.8 1.74 2.24 7.87 32.87 25.45 24.42 11.17 5.4 3.32 2.32 1.62 1.48 1.22 1.46 6.09 17.88 23.93 21.77 5.89 4.06 2.85 1.9 1.33 1.32 1.17 1.65 5.15 17.28 29.62 21.1 5.25 3.04 2.29 1.71 1.09 1.21 1.55 3.31 14.33 34.6 42.93 24.74 9.36 4.67 3.3 2.47 1.7 1.63 1.27 2.76 8.08 20.12 28.48 14.6 11.18 6.93 3.42 2.33 1.5 1.33 1.09 2.52 7.16 23.86 34.65 25.07 19.58 6.41 4.27 3.06 1.95 1.62 1.35 2.24 10.19 38.02 33.4 20.03 19.02 5.96 4.27 2.61 1.72 1.52 1.88 1.85 5.4 18.6 53.81 19.31 23.97 8.04 3.92 2.6 1.92 1.79 1.4 1.99 11.96 37.47 54.03 17.56 7.41 4.1 3.06 2.38 1.67 1.64 1.29 1.21 5.55 19.57 32.44 15.63 6.24 3.45 2.11

$\endgroup$
3
$\begingroup$

Of course. Just forecast eleven years ahead. But the forecasts are very unlikely to be any good that far out.

$\endgroup$
2
$\begingroup$

In addition to what @RobHyndman said: if we do want to fill the missing data, we would have to do so by forecasting them for 2003-2010 (which will introduce forecast errors). If we then use the actual and the filled-in data to forecast 2011-2013, treating the filled-in values as measured without error, we will be too sure of ourselves in the actual 2011-2013 forecasts, so any prediction intervals will be too narrow. So: if you do fill in those years, account for that in assessing your forecast uncertainty for 2011-2013.

$\endgroup$
1
$\begingroup$

Kas, I took your 516 values (43 years) and simply forecasted the next 13 years (156 periods). AUTOBOX found that the parameters of the best model had changed significantly on or about 1984/9 thus used the most recent 220 values to construct the equation using the CHOW test for parameter stability. enter image description here which is simply an ARIMA model (1,0,0)(1,1,0) with a few pulse (1 time effects) included. The Forecasts are enter image description here and specifically for 2013 enter image description here . The residuals from the model are enter image description here . The series seems quite stable and I am not uncomfortable at all in the predictions for 2013, UNLESS you know about some structural change in this series between 2003 and 2012.

$\endgroup$

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.