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When running the ping command over a IP network for a period of time, I assume the packet loss will be a combination of:

  • Random, uncorrelated failures where the fact that one packet has been lost does not effect the probability the next will be lost
  • Periods of outages caused by (for example) an ADSL connection dropping out. In these cases the loss of adjacent packets is highly correlated.

(there may be other effects in real world networks, but take that as the model)

How can one go about working out the underlying probabilities of the two causes of packet loss?

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