# Calculate probability of outcome of a medical procedure

I have data on medical procedures completed at hospitals in major U.S hospitals. Each medical procedure is assigned a code, for example: Kidney Transplant is X6571.

I define the success criteria and create a 'good' and 'bad' binary outcome whether. I have other variables such as wait time before surgery, other medical complication, patient age, frequency of surgeries that I control for.

For each medical procedure surgery code, I'd like to obtain a probability of success score. What models / techniques would be appropriate for this problem? I am open to suggestions beyond regression models.

• Why do you ask beyond regression models? Is a logistic regression model not good enough? Nov 30 '20 at 6:38
• It's an option, however, I want to explore other methods as well and compare accuracy.
– kms
Nov 30 '20 at 6:39

Since each record of a surgery is either "good" or "bad", it can be considered as a Bernoulli distribution with the probability of $$p$$ for "good" and $$1-p$$ for "bad". Based on the surgery records for each surgery code type, you may calculate a confidence interval (CI) of $$p$$ corresponding to a specified confidence level(CL, e.g. CL=95%) to indicate the rate of the surgery successfulness.