Product X is due to launch in 6 months time and I am looking for a method to estimate what the sales of this product could likely be in 3 years time.
Product X belongs to a category of products for which I have daily historical sales going back 5 years, in this category there are 4 other products [A,B,C,D] which are similar in attributes to X but X is deemed to be a superior product.
I've read about Bass diffusion models to estimate new product sales but I am wondering if I can use the sales data from the other products in the category to estimate the sales of X. Can I estimate the Bass model parameters for products A,B,C & D and take the average of these?
Right now our product experts use a finger in the air approach (65% of product B's sales) to estimate the sales of X but I am looking to apply a bit more analytical rigor in my approach. It doesn't have to be a deep learning model but just something sufficiently more robust than taking a guess of the expected sales.
I would be very grateful if any of the boffins here could provide some direction please