0
$\begingroup$

I have a data set containing 20 years of Gini values ​​for a country. The latest data are for 2018. I want to predict the Gini values ​​for this country by 2025. How can I do this using ML techniques? Also, which econometric forecast model would you recommend?

$\endgroup$
1
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ You have a time series, better to look into methods for time series prediction (or forecasting). Search this site! $\endgroup$ – kjetil b halvorsen Feb 23 at 6:40
1
$\begingroup$

The very first thing you should do is try an extremely simple forecasting benchmark, like the exponential smoothing model that is automatically selected by forecast::ets(). I recommend the excellent free online book Forecasting: Principles and Practice (2nd ed.) by Athanasopoulos & Hyndman.

After you have calculated this benchmark, which should take about ten minutes, you can go into econometric forecasting, putting all other macroeconometric variables into a giant vector autoregression (VAE). There are many textbooks on econometrics. This second step shouldn't take much more than a year.

$\endgroup$
1
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you Mr. Kolasa. The book was useful to understanding the basics of forecasting. It has also a chapter about how we can forecast with ML techniques. Thank you for your benchmark suggestion, it'll be my first step. $\endgroup$ – Maxpayne Feb 24 at 7:50

Your Answer

By clicking “Post Your Answer”, you agree to our terms of service, privacy policy and cookie policy

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.