I have recently been doing some analysis regarding forecasting of specific items. I want to know if the findings of my analysis are specific to my data or if it is something that is commonly seen.
I am looking into finished goods finished good forecasts at a sku level and am comparing a statistical forecast from a software package my company uses for forecasting purposes to a moving average of historical demand to calculate value add of the forecasting. At higher levels, say product line, forecast accuracy of the lump sum total pounds of material is very high (say 85%) on the statistical forecast and less so on the moving average (70%), but if I take an average of each sku's accuracy in the product line, the moving average tends to be as good if not better.
For clarification, a sku is a specific item produced at a specific plant. Within my organization, we have 100s, if not thousands of skus. We could have the same item produced at multiple plants, and each of their skus would differ slightly. Basically it's just a unique item identification code.
Is this normal at this level?