# How to predict match outcome in team game based on participating players

I have a typical scenario and wanted to know how to approach the problem to solve it.

Let say the data set contains $N$ records and each record contains $10$ names and an output variable. The first $5$ names belong to Team $A$ and the next $5$ names belong to Team $B$. The output variable tells whether Team $A$ wins or Team $B$ wins.

Which algorithm are used to solve this type of data set? I am trying to use Naive Bayes classification. Is there any other method better suited for these problems?

My attempt: Calculated $P(A_{win}),P(B_{win}),P(N_i),P(N_i|A_{win}),P(N_i|B_{win})$
$$P(A_{win} | N_1N_2\cdots N_5) = \frac{P(N_1N_2\cdots N_5 | A_{win}) * P(A_{win})}{P(N_1N_2\cdots N_5)}$$ $$= \frac{P(N_1 | A_{win}) * \cdots *P(N_5 | A_{win}) * P(A_{win})}{P(N_1)*\cdots *P(N_5)}$$

$$P(B_{win} | N_6N_7\cdots N_{10}) = \frac{P(N_6N_7\cdots N_{10} | B_{win}) * P(B_{win})}{P(N_6N_7\cdots N_{10})}$$ $$= \frac{P(N_6 | B_{win}) * \cdots *P(N_{10} | B_{win}) * P(B_{win})}{P(N_{6})*\cdots *P(N_{10})}$$

If $P(A_{win} | N_1N_2\cdots N_5) > P(B_{win} | N_6N_7\cdots N_{10})$ Then $A$ wins

Not sure whether this approach is right or wrong!

• possible duplicate of Predicting team performance Apr 17, 2013 at 9:34
• I think this question expands a lot on the one @steffen marked as a duplicate, so that one should be deleted or this one merged into that one or something. Apr 17, 2013 at 10:25
• The OP answered both and in both the interest in a general solution is expressed. IMHO the extra "is my first approach, the modelling via Naive Bayes in such a way, ok ?" is not worth keeping. Apr 17, 2013 at 10:32