I think I am looking at odds or likelihood ratios in this scenario, but I'm having trouble figuring out how to actually calculate my numbers to get an answer to my questions.
I have 309,508 total 3rd graders in the state. 179,107 are economically disadvantaged and 130,401 are not. Of the students economically disadvantaged, 101,464 did meet reading level standards and 77,643 did not meet standards. Of the students that are not economically disadvantaged, 108,269 did meet reading level standards and 22,132 did not meet standards.
My ultimate questions to answer is: Of 3rd grade students in the state, how LESS likely is it that economically disadvantaged students will be on or above reading level standards?
I calculated my odds ratio as (A x D)/(C x B) then AD/CB to get my percentage. This can be seen in the chart below;
Could I then interpret this as: Economically disadvantaged students are 27 percent more likely to not be reading on or above grade level standards by 3rd grade than their peers who are not economically disadvantaged.
I'm stuck on where likelihood comes in, how it's different from odds, and how to calculate it for this scenario so I can get a less likely answer.