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I'm bouncing around "Causality" by Judea Pearl.

On page 222 it offers this definition of a direct cause:

"$X$ is a direct cause of $Y$" if there exist two values $x$ and $x'$ of $X$ and a value $u$ of $U$ such that $Y_{xr}(u) \not= Y_{x'r}(u)$ where $r$ is some realization of $V \setminus \{X, Y\}$.

My questions are:

  1. What is a "realization", is it the same as Wikipedia's Realization (probability) definition?
  2. What does the $\setminus$ symbol mean in the context of the two functions $X$ and $Y$? Can you give me an example?
  3. Finally, how do I use this definition in practice?

Let's say I have two structural causal models:

  1. $X \rightarrow Y$
  2. $X \rightarrow Q \rightarrow Y$

How does this definition of direct cause allow me to discover that $X$ is a direct cause in the first case, and $X$ is not a direct cause in the second case?

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    $\begingroup$ Technically, $X\to Y$ and $X\to Q\to Y$ are not structural causal models but causal graphs. The SCM would include equations showing the exact dependence of each variable on the others. The SCM induces the causal graph, but the reverse is not true, though the causal graph can give you a LOT of information about your system. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 13, 2021 at 20:06

2 Answers 2

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Here Pearl is defining under what condition $X$ is a direct cause of $Y$.

In his notation $U$ refers to exogenous variables (variables coming from outside the model) and $V$ refers to endogenous variables (variables inside the model). See wikipedia for a bit more detail.

Q2. The \ symbol is typically used in reference to sets to mean "exclusion". So $V\backslash \{X,Y\}$ means the set of endogonous variables (not including $X$ and $Y$).

Q1. By realization, he is refering to the statistical interpretation to which you linked. He means, let's imagine that the variables in $V$ (not including $X$ and $Y$) take some values which we call $r$.

Q3. This question is a little more vague to answer, but the definition is (effectively) saying that "all other things being equal", changes in the value of $X$ will change the observed value of $Y$.

Q4. The definition let's you distinguish these two use cases since in the second case $V\backslash \{X,Y\}=Q$ and so a different value of $X$ will create a different realized value of $r$. I'm not 100% certain on this point though so perhaps someone else can explain this better.

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    $\begingroup$ +1 Also why use five words when you can use two! :) Ceteris paribus: "all other things being equal". $\endgroup$
    – Alexis
    Commented Sep 10, 2021 at 15:05
  • $\begingroup$ Maybe because effectiveness in communication is not measured by word count but rather understandability $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 12, 2021 at 15:11
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    $\begingroup$ Re: Q4: I could imagine a scenario in which $x$ and $x'$ produce the same value of $Q,$ right? Just because $X\to Q$ doesn't mean that $x$ forces $Q=q$ as opposed to $x'$ forcing $Q=q'.$ I think you're on the right track, though. If you examine the function $f(x)=Y_{xr}(u),$ then Pearl's condition is saying that this function is not constant. It's not saying that $f$ is 1-1. 1-1 would require that ALL $x\not=x'$ requires $Y_{xr}(u)\not=Y_{x'r}(u).$ Maybe that helps? I don't have the answer, so I'm hoping this prods something! $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 13, 2021 at 19:57
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    $\begingroup$ A further comment on Q4: I'm imagining a scenario like this: $$ \begin{array}{ccc} X &Q &Y \\ \hline 0 &0 &0 \\ 1 &0 &1 \\ 2 &1 &2 \end{array} $$ But maybe this is impossible? If $Q$ is the same, then wouldn't $Y$ have to be the same? How could causal information flow from $X$ to $Y$ through $Q$ without changing values of $Q?$ If this scenario I've dreamed up really is impossible, then I think your answer is 100% correct, and should be accepted. $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 13, 2021 at 20:29
  • $\begingroup$ Ok this weekend I should have some time to review and digest. Sorry for the delay and thank you both for your answers $\endgroup$ Commented Sep 16, 2021 at 1:14
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I think Adam Kells has it mostly right, but let me write up a few more comments on your last question (which Adam calls Q4):

The notation $Y_x(u)$ is referring to the value of the effect $Y$ when the exogenous variables are equal to $u$, and the cause $X$ has been forced, via the do operator, to have the value $x.$ It follows that the expression $$(\exists\,x,x')[x\not=x'\implies Y_{xr}(u)\not=Y_{x'r}(u)]$$ means that there exists $x,x'$ such that when we are force $V\setminus\{X,Y\}$ to have the realization $r$ for both cases of $x$ and $x',$ as well as forcing $X=x$ and $X=x'$ in two different scenarios, that the effect $Y$ takes on different values.

In my comment to Adam's answer, I have convinced myself that if the values of $Q$ in your $X\to Q\to Y$ causal graph are the same, $Y$ must be the same. Causal information can only flow all the way from $X$ to $Y$ if $X$ can "wiggle" $Q,$ which then "wiggles" $Y.$ By "wiggle", I mean "force a change in".

So in your scenario, if you have $x, x'$ for $X,$ but only one $Q=q=r,$ then $Y$ can only take on one value. Hence, $X$ cannot be a direct cause of $Y.$

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