Probability of being cut in a guillotine fantasy football league

I am in a fantasy football league that has an interesting set up. This league started with 32 teams at the beginning of the year and each week the two lowest scoring teams are cut from the league and their players are put back into the free agent pool.

My question is how you could potentially model the probability of getting cut. Each week a team starts with projected points. Based on the projected points at the beginning of the week, can we estimate this probability?

I built a simple logistic regression model and it does okay, but one thing I think a good model should do is consider that only two teams will be cut. If two teams are projected to score 20 points and the rest of the league is projected for 120 points then the model should consider that most likely those two teams will be cut and everyone else should be relatively safe. It also should consider the number of teams. With 32 teams the probability should of being cut should be lower for most teams and when there are only 8 teams then it should be much higher for every team.