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Assume that $E[( \theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2] = O(n^{-1/2})$. How can I show that $\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 = O_p(n^{-1/2})?$

What I'm trying to ask is: if the expected value of some quantity is $O(n^{-1/2})$, does that imply the sample mean of that quantity is also $O_p(n^{-1/2})$?

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  • $\begingroup$ Are you sure you have the subscript notation right? You’re using the same stuff for random sequences and nonrandom sequences $\endgroup$
    – Taylor
    Commented Mar 19, 2022 at 17:34
  • $\begingroup$ @Taylor Could you elaborate? Are you talking about the subscript $n$ for $\hat{\theta}$? $\endgroup$
    – Adrian
    Commented Mar 19, 2022 at 17:55
  • $\begingroup$ Sorry if my notation is confusing. What I'm trying to ask is: if the expected value of some quantity is $O_p(n^{-1/2})$, does that imply the sample mean of that quantity is also $O_p(n^{-1/2})$? $\endgroup$
    – Adrian
    Commented Mar 19, 2022 at 18:03
  • $\begingroup$ It's not confusing, it's just incorrect. $O_p$ is not the same as $O$ @Adrian $\endgroup$
    – Taylor
    Commented Mar 20, 2022 at 2:58
  • $\begingroup$ @Taylor can you point me to a resource that explains the difference between the two notation? $\endgroup$
    – Adrian
    Commented Mar 20, 2022 at 3:09

2 Answers 2

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You want to show that for any $\varepsilon>0$, there exist two positive reals $M$ and $N$ such that $$\mathbb P\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt n}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 > M\right)\le\varepsilon\ \ \forall n\ge N $$ Let $\varepsilon>0$. For any $n\ge1$ and $M>0$ you have, by Markov inequality, that $$\begin{align}\mathbb P\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt n}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 > M\right)&\le\frac 1 M\mathbb E\left[\frac{1}{\sqrt n}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 \right]\\ &\le\frac{1}{M\sqrt n}\mathbb E\left[\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 \right]\\ &\le\frac{\sqrt n}{M}\mathbb E\left[(\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 \right]\\\end{align} $$ But, because you assume that $E[( \theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2] = O(n^{-1/2})$ (it's a deterministic sequence so I assume the big O is the usual one, otherwise it makes no sense), you know that for any positive $M'$, there exists $N'$ such that, for all $n\ge N'$ : $$\sqrt nE[( \theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2] \le M' $$ Now take $M'=M\varepsilon$ and you can conclude that the desired inequality holds for all $n\ge N'$.

[Note that I assumed that the $\theta$ in the sum were supposed to be $n$ i.i.d. realizations of $\theta$ called $\theta_i$.]

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  • $\begingroup$ Should it be $P\left(\sqrt{n}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta - \hat{\theta}_n)^2 > M\right) \leq \epsilon$ in the first line? Because I want to show that $\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta - \hat{\theta}_n)^2$ is $O(n^{-1/2})$. $\endgroup$
    – Adrian
    Commented Mar 20, 2022 at 1:39
  • $\begingroup$ If so, then I have $P\left(\sqrt{n} \sum_{i=1}^n (\theta - \hat{\theta}_n)^2 > M\right) \leq \frac{n}{M} \sqrt{n}E[(\theta - \hat{\theta}_n)^2]$. Since $E[(\theta - \hat{\theta})^2] = O(n^{-1/2})$, then $\sqrt{n}E[(\theta - \hat{\theta}_n)^2] \leq M'$. Therefore, should I take $M' = \frac{M\epsilon}{n}?$ Is it OK for $M'$ to depend on $n$? $\endgroup$
    – Adrian
    Commented Mar 20, 2022 at 1:59
  • $\begingroup$ No, you are trying to prove that $$U_n =\color{red}{\frac{1}{n}}\sum_{i=1}^n (\theta-\hat{\theta}_n)^2 $$ Is $O_p(n^{-1/2})$, so when you apply the definition you end up with the expression I've written. Regarding your second question, $M'$ can not depend on $n$ as it is supposed to be a constant (again, look at the definition from Wikipédia). $\endgroup$ Commented Mar 21, 2022 at 0:29
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Big-O in terms of the quantile function

We can interpret the $O_p$ in terms of the quantile functions.

If

$$X_n = {O}_p(a_n) \quad \text{for }n \to \infty$$

then in terms of the quantile functions for $X_n$

$$\forall p \in (0,1): \lbrace Q_{X_n}(p) = {O}(a_n) \quad \text{for }n \to \infty \rbrace$$

See this also in the question: What is difference between $\hat{X}_n \overset{p}{\to} \bar{x}$ and $(\hat{X}_n - \bar{x}) = o_p(1)$?

Expectation in terms of the quantile function

If the quantile function is continuous, then we can express the expectation value as an integral over the quantile function

$$E[X_n] = \int_0^1 Q_{X_n}(p) \,\text{d}p$$

And for non-negative variables $X_n$ we have for every $p_c<1$

$$E[X_n] \geq \int_{p_c}^1 Q_{X_n}(p) \,\text{d}p \geq \int_{p_c}^1 Q_{X_n}(p_c) \,\text{d}p = (1-p_c) Q_{X_n}(p_c)$$

From which it follows that $Q_{X_n}(p_c) = O\left(E[X_n]\right)$ and the quantiles $p_c<1$ have at least the same order of convergence as the expectation value.

Edge case

Say the quantiles function is $$Q_{X_n}(p) = \log(n) n^{p/2-1}$$ then $$E[X_n] = 2n^{-0.5} + 2n^{-n} = O\left(n^{-0.5}\right)$$

The quantile functions have convergence $$O\left(\log(n)n^{-a}\right)$$ with $$a = 0.5 \cdot (2-p)$$ For $p =1$ this power is $0.5$ and the convergence bound is $O\left(\log(n)n^{-0.5}\right)$, which means less fast convergence. However, for any $p<1$ the power is $a>0.5$ and the convergence is faster than the convergence of the expectation. We can only make examples where the quantiles $p=1$ converges less fast.

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  • $\begingroup$ The argument here is basically the same as the use of the Markov inequality. $\endgroup$ Commented Aug 2 at 7:43

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