I have a model which uses the historical data to predict the electricity load consumption. I want to compare my model with a baseline model to show the performance, however I can not find a good base model for this purpose. I want to ask that do you have any suggestion that which method is used in industry for this purpose? or Do you have any suggestion about that?
I´m pursuing a PhD in this area so far I can tell that:
Industry is mostly based on robust yet simple models: AWS offers a solution that as far as I can tell uses ARMA based models (AWS Forecast)
ETAP uses probably a Markov Model that also includes information about weather for the forecast (ETAP Forecast)
Scheider probably uses a ARMA-Based Model alongside some Markov it also can use weather information ( Schneider Forecast )
Also I've talked with Small retailers them provide ARMA Based and few talk about Machine Learning Models.
In Research there is a complete different story.
So far I've not found a common dataset for benchmark because most researchers uses their own collected data and also have not found a baseline model. Nevertheless most of them use the Mean Absolute Percentage Error as Metric and try to reach a MAPE < 5.0%
Best Regards and keep in touch. My Github