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Relevant context: epidemiologists define an outbreak according to six defined stages (investigation, recognition, initiation, acceleration, deceleration, and preparation). From a local perspective, it would be useful to determine what constitutes a change from one phase to another, as they call for different resource allocations.

Question: Statistically speaking, what are the most optimal approaches to determine these thresholds? I can think of at least five ways to find inflection points as shown well here: https://www.wikihow.com/Find-Inflection-Points but in practicality, how about Jenks procedures widely used in ecology?

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    $\begingroup$ You told us the names of the stages, but could you also say what they mean? You consider inflection points of what? Jenks procedure of what data? A link for the Janks procedure would also be helpful to make sure we are not talking about different methods. $\endgroup$
    – frank
    Oct 11, 2022 at 3:49
  • $\begingroup$ @frank: "Jenks" is presumably en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenks_natural_breaks_optimization $\endgroup$
    – Henry
    Dec 8, 2022 at 15:23
  • $\begingroup$ while cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr6306a1.htm#Fig gives some suggestion as the CDC meanings of the six stages as they apply to influenza A outbreaks $\endgroup$
    – Henry
    Dec 8, 2022 at 15:32

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