So essentially I have patient data for a period of 5 years: same patient each year each person has 5 predicted risks (for each year) - e.g. in 2017 there risk was 2%, in 2018 the same patients risk was 8% etc The equation predicts the risk of an event in 5 years n is approx 100
All data inputs has been converted to numerical data I want to asses how good the equation was at predicting the outcome. The outcome is already known. Note: there are no false positives as the population being analysed all eventually developed the condition. This is due to the population, not because anyone was excluded. Would an AUCROC case be appropriate for this? Are there any other statistical tests available (other than sensitivity and specificity)
If I were to use AUCROC analysis, would it be appropriate to make 5 aucroc curves for each year?
edit: It is a prognostic predictive model that provides the risk of developing a condition in 5 years - its input is continuos variables. I seek to externally validate it
Thank you guys, Id appreciate any help