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A simulation output for each microscopic travel demand model and two further macroscopic MDCEV models - transformed versions of the microscopic model - are given for a base scenario. Moreover, three additional outputs are given for a specific forecast scenario with varied model inputs (e.g., reducing public transportation travel times, expanding carsharing and bikesharing services). Every output is considered on an aggregated level, namely on modal splits (share of trips with bike, car, as a pedestrian, etc.).

Now, we want to analyze and compare the predictive strength of the MDCEV models with regard to the microscopic model, which serves as a reference. Therefore, we want to compare the modal shares for the forecast scenario as well as the modal shifts (differences between each share of the base scenario and forecast scenario with varied inputs).

Which statistical model serves the best?

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  • $\begingroup$ Can you please explain/reference MDCEV ? $\endgroup$
    – kjetil b halvorsen ♦
    Mar 29 at 22:51
  • $\begingroup$ Multiple-Discrete-Continous Extrem Value model (sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261507000677) The model enables the transformation of the microscopic model into a macroscopic one. I am sure, that for my question above no further information about MDCEV is needed. $\endgroup$
    – meg1234
    Mar 30 at 7:15

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