I'm trying to select between two models. 1. has a Truncated Normal likelihood and 2. has a Gamma likelihood. 1. has a much higher WAIC/LOO score but the posterior predictive in 2. (specifically the middle plot) looks much better to me as it excludes outliers. (Actually, this data is real and was not simulated, so I don't actually know what points are outliers)

How can I select between these two fits?

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