I am currently reading a book on health technology assessment: Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation (Briggs et al).

Given all information below, I'd appreciate if someone could show how they arrived at the transition probabilities.

Weibull output is given on Table 3.2 of the book:

Stata Output

And the transition probabilities $(tp)$ are given by the formula:

$tp(t_u) = 1- exp \left(\lambda(t-u)^\gamma - \lambda t^\gamma\right) $

$cons = ln(\lambda)$

$p = \gamma$

$u = \textit{cycle length of model}$

Year Transition probabilities (%)
1 2.47
2 1.68
3. 1.46.

Could someone show how these transition probabilities were arrived at using the arguments above, please?

I have failed thus far and all help would be greatly appreciated.



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