Brier score can be computed for joint predictions of multiple variables, each with multiple categories. Let's say we have 4 variables with 3 possible classes each.

In that case, the denominator of the Brier score is 4 (as it seems implied in the original 1956 Brier paper) or 12 (as seems implied in Wikipwdia "and N the overall number of instances of all classes.") ?

Is there a value of the Brier score that is, by convention (as certan values of the p-value ), considered good enought?


1 Answer 1


I am not aware of a standard for this denominator. However, I would strongly lean towards using the number of variables, 4. This way, your overall result is scaled between 0 and 1, with perfect predictions achieving 0 (assuming a negative "smaller is better" orientation). Since every separate variable contributes something between 0 and 1, dividing by 12 would have you end up with something between 0 and 0.333. See also How to Compute the Brier Score for more than Two Classes.

As to a Brier score that is "good enough", no, that does not exist in isolation, for the same reasons that any other outputs of statistical models - parameter estimates or predictions - do not have notions of "good enough" in isolation. Best to compare your model to a benchmark model, rather than a benchmark score. See:

  • $\begingroup$ Thank you, I did read that question, but it uses there only one variable, so I wasn't sure. By the way, when computed in that way, the maximum value is 2. $\endgroup$
    – Antonello
    Apr 20 at 14:14

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