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I am 70, left school at 14 but took to maths a few years back to ward off dementia so please excuse the naivety of my question.

I have been using Poisson distribution to solve my problem but I dont think it fits well. Three outcomes, lets say a coin toss. Can land on its head/tail/side. But the event is unbalanced, lets say the edge is flat on part of it, or the head side is slightly heavier. These unbalanced attributes never change and they are know. So if I toss that coin a 100 times what is the probability of head/tail/edge for this event. So what model do I use would you recommend. thank you for reading and taking the time. Kind regards Simon

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This is a standard example of a multinomial distribution. On the linked Wikipedia page, in your case the number of events $k$ will be 3, and then there are probabilities $p_1, p_2, p_3$ for the three possible events. $n$ is the number of trials, 100 in this example.

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    $\begingroup$ Thank you for taking the time to answer. A lot of reading for me I guess. I will give it a go. Regards Simon $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 15 at 11:09

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