I have a very beginner question about Logit coefficients.
I am trying to predict how often the home team with win a basketball game. I did a regression analysis much like the one on this page and below are the variables and their coefficients. I haven't done a logistic regression and I'm sure how to utilize the coefficients to make predictions.
home_cumORTG 0.0766 away_cumORTG -0.0891 home_cumDRTG -0.1029 away_cumDRTG 0.0690 intercept 5.7061
Assume the home and the away team both have offensive and defensive ratings of 105 what is the probability that the home team will win?
This is my best guess on how to do it but I hope it's not right because if it is my data is no good.
odds = 105 * .0766 + 105 * -.0891 + 105 * -.1029 + 105* .0690 + 5.7061 odds / (1+odds) output 0.45477345837195365
Something is wrong because it is predicting that if two evenly matched teams play the home team will win less than half of the time when in reality the home team wins over 60 percent of the time.
EDIT I think this is how it should be
1/(1+(1/ math.exp(5.7061 + 105 * .0766 + 105 * -.0891 + 105 * -.1029 + 105* .0690)))