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I was wondering what time series model would forecast future values in such a static but decreasing manner? ( I'm talking about the values around where the circle appears, as apparently, the data set that I have does that, judging from the graph, but I'm a beginner and not sure what model would do that? though I think it should be a simple one). I just need reasonable ideas :)

Thanks!

data

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  • $\begingroup$ the y axis shows the size of some population at a given point in time, if that is of any help $\endgroup$
    – Sarunas
    Sep 23, 2013 at 11:10
  • $\begingroup$ Could you please explain it a bit more? I still do not understand what's the problem... $\endgroup$
    – a.desantos
    Sep 23, 2013 at 11:28
  • $\begingroup$ Post your actual historical data and the future values and I will try and reverse engineer the equation. $\endgroup$
    – IrishStat
    Sep 25, 2013 at 21:12

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If you have available the data set of the predicted values (and not just the graph), then you could apply "reverse-engineering" by trial-and-error, i.e. try to "estimate" a function from this data, treating them as random although they are not, by applying standard time-series approaches. In principle you would eventually find the exact forecasting equation.

But generally speaking, the fact that for a specific interval (the circled values) the forecasting function appears to behave as a "~linear function with structural shifts" can not, on its own, help "guess" the function, because, in other parts of the graph the function exhibits different behavior.

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